Tianqi Lithium (002466) Interim Report Comments: Steady Lithium Prices Falling, Financial Expenses Slow Down Performance
Revenue decreased by 21.
3%, net profit attributable to mothers fell by 85.
2%, Q2 continued to rule out: 19H revenue 25.
900 million, at least -21.
28%; net profit attributable to mother 1.
9.3 billion, ten years -85.
Of which the second quarter revenue was 12.
5.3 billion, at least -22.
71%, net profit attributable to mother 0.
82 ppm, at least -87.
The company expects a profit of 2-2 in the first three quarters.
500 million, ten years -88.
The reason for the sharp increase in revenue and profits is that the price of lithium ore products has risen sharply, the second is that SQM’s earnings have fallen short of expectations, and the impact of large financial 天津夜网 costs on acquisitions.
Operating results, changes in the price of lithium salt products on gross profit, full production and sales of lithium salt products, Taylorson’s profit situation is still good: 1) 19H1 battery-grade lithium carbonate / lithium hydroxide average price of 7 respectively.
10,000 yuan / ton, 49 from the previous decade.
5% / 32.
7%, starting in July to continue, the current sales price is close to cost support, overlap in the second half of the downstream boom rebounded, there is little room for further decline in lithium salt prices.
2) 19H lithium salt products1.
97 benchmarks, capacity utilization rate 89%, sales volume 1.
94 samples, 98 sales.
5%, basically full production and sales, the expected sales volume is expected to be more than 4; 3) the company and SKI, Ecopro, 武汉夜生活网 LG Chemical and other procurement agreements to ensure the consumption of incremental production capacity, in addition the company obtained the Rhine T · V certification, escortLong-term development; 4) Net profit attributable to Tianqi in the first half of the year3.
5.2 billion, previously +34.
9%, the operation is still stable. After completing the expansion in the 60th year of the second phase of Tyrison, the production capacity will reach 134 inches (lithium concentrate), and the profit growth will further increase.
The SQM acquisition has brought financial burden to the company. Tianqi’s multi-channel financing can reduce the burden: 1) SQM reports the net profit attributable to the mother.
51 billion US dollars, a temporary decrease of 39.
1% is less than expected, the company confirms investment income2.
48 percent is expected.
2) Syndicated loan rollover pressure is not great, but it brings 8 to 19H.
61 billion financial expenses, financial burden burden, dragged down the current period net profit.
3) The company will continue to advance the rights issue financing + multi-channel financing method. The rights issue is expected to be completed within the year and can be replaced by about 1 billion US dollars in M & A loans. Subsequently, the convertible bonds continue to advance and gradually reduce gradually.
Earnings forecast and investment grade: We expect net profit attributable to mothers to be 4 in 19-21.
8.3 billion each year -80.
8% / + 112.
1% / + 54.
2%, the corresponding EPS is 0.
21 yuan, corresponding to the current price of 63 times / 29 times / 19 times.
The company’s performance in 19-21 was mainly dragged down by financial expenses incurred by M & A loans, but the company’s main business of lithium salt is stable, and the current price of lithium has little room for decline. From 2020, the company’s performance will gradually stabilize and rise. The company’s performance is expected to be gradually released and maintained.”Buy” rating.
Risk warnings: rights issue, convertible bond issuance is less than expected; lithium salt capacity growth exceeds expectations; downstream demand is less than expected, etc.